In a world where the federal government's tax policies and trust regulations are causing concern, one assistant Treasury minister, Andrew Leigh, has a far more pressing issue on his hands: the potential for global extinction. Leigh's speech, delivered in honor of the late Lyndhurst Giblin, an esteemed Australian economist, paints a grim picture of humanity's future, with a particular focus on the risks posed by artificial intelligence and synthetic biology.
Leigh's argument is twofold. Firstly, he highlights the ultimate scarcity of resources, suggesting that the possibility of no future for humanity is a real and pressing concern. With the sun's billions of years of burn time in comparison to humanity's mere few hundred thousand years of existence, and the estimated trillions of potential future humans, the stakes are undeniably high. Extinction, in this context, would not only mean the loss of the present but also the potential for an entire future of human lives.
Secondly, Leigh points to the risks associated with technological progress. As countries embrace medical breakthroughs and the productivity gains offered by AI, the potential for self-destruction increases. Modern economies, he argues, may be better at generating dangerous capabilities than at building the necessary safeguards to control them. The very engine that drives prosperity could, at advanced stages, increase fragility.
Leigh's solution is a call to action for governments and economists alike. He suggests that policies need to be developed to address the 'hazard rate' of new technologies, even those with remote dangers. Economists, he believes, must shift their focus from equity and efficiency to survivability. This shift in perspective is crucial, as it highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach to decision-making, one that considers the long-term survival of humanity.
What makes Leigh's speech particularly intriguing is his unique blend of economics and existential risk. While many economists focus on the immediate and tangible, Leigh takes a step back to consider the broader implications of our actions. His speech serves as a stark reminder that the choices we make today could have profound consequences for our future, and it is our responsibility to ensure that these choices are made with a long-term view of survivability.
In a world where the future is uncertain, Leigh's speech is a call to action, urging us to consider the risks we face and the steps we need to take to ensure our survival. It is a reminder that, in the face of potential global extinction, the economic choices we make today could be the difference between a thriving future and an untimely end.
